How Israel’s Deadly Pager Blasts Could Spark Another 9/11-Style Attack

Pagers exploded

By Ben Emos and Mary Jones | Thursday, September 19, 2024 | 7 min read

The recent attack in Lebanon, where hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded nearly simultaneously, signals a disturbing evolution in the covert war between Israel and its adversaries. The highly coordinated and unprecedented operation, allegedly carried out by Israeli intelligence and military forces, has raised alarms not only about the vulnerability of groups like Hezbollah but also about the potential for such tactics to be used against Israel and its allies, including the United States.

The Iran-backed militant group reported that the devices began detonating at approximately 3:30 p.m. local time, attributing the attack to a targeted Israeli strike aimed at Hezbollah operatives.

FN confirmed Israel’s involvement, citing sources that said the operation was a collaboration between Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, and the Israeli military. The Lebanese government condemned the strike, calling it “criminal Israeli aggression.”

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According to reports from The New York Times, Israel planted explosives inside a batch of pagers ordered from Taiwanese manufacturer Gold Apollo, bound for Hezbollah. A remotely controlled switch was embedded to detonate them.

Gold Apollo founder Hsu Ching-kuang stated that a European distributor, Hungary-based BAC Consulting, began importing their products three years ago. BAC later sought authorization to produce their own pagers under Gold Apollo’s brand.

Hsu mentioned an anomaly involving BAC: a delayed wire transfer. In a statement, Gold Apollo clarified that the AR924 model was produced by BAC under a trademark license, with no involvement from Gold Apollo in the design or manufacturing.

Gold Apollo shipped approximately 260,000 pagers between January 2022 and August 2024, according to a senior Taiwanese security official, but there is no record of any shipments to Lebanon or the Middle East.

This attack, remarkable in its precision and sophistication, may well set the stage for retaliatory actions that could be catastrophic in scale, drawing parallels to the 9/11 attacks in the U.S. in 2001. Just as the 9/11 attackers may have drawn inspiration from earlier incidents involving Israeli cargo plane, such as the crash of El Al Flight 1862 in Amsterdam, terrorists may now look to Israel’s use of seemingly low-tech devices to craft their own deadly strategies. The chilling thought is that the very technology used to dismantle Hezbollah’s network could be repurposed by terrorist organizations for devastating, global-scale attacks.

The Attack: A Game-Changer in Covert Warfare

Hezbollah has long relied on low-tech communication methods, such as pagers, to avoid surveillance by Israeli and U.S. intelligence agencies. For years, they have instructed their operatives to avoid smartphones, fearing they could be tracked and targeted through GPS. Instead, Hezbollah embraced pagers, believing them to be a safer alternative.

However, Israel’s recent operation turned these low-tech devices against Hezbollah. According to reports, explosives were hidden inside the pagers, which were then detonated remotely. This infiltration, unprecedented in scale and execution, dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah’s operations and morale. It also exposed their vulnerability in a way that could have profound ripple effects beyond the immediate region.

The 9/11 Connection: A Lesson in Terrorist Innovation

The potential consequences of this operation echo a much larger concern: that terrorist organizations could adopt similar tactics, using basic technology to carry out highly coordinated attacks. The history of global terrorism shows that groups often learn from each other, adapting tactics and strategies that were previously used against them or their allies.

One horrifying instance is the 9/11 attacks. Before 2001, few could have imagined that terrorists would hijack multiple commercial airplanes and use them as missiles to strike iconic buildings in the U.S. However, the seeds for such an attack may have been planted nearly a decade earlier, on October 4, 1992, when El Al Flight 1862, an Israeli cargo plane, crashed into an apartment complex in Amsterdam’s Bijlmermeer neighborhood. The crash killed 43 people and raised questions about Israeli cargo flights, which were suspected of carrying military materials.

El Al Flight 1862, a cargo Boeing 747-200 plane, crashed into an apartment complex in Amsterdam’s Bijlmermeer neighborhood

While the crash was an accident, it may have offered a grim template for terrorists. Just as the 9/11 hijackers exploited weaknesses in aviation security to carry out their attack, future terrorists could study the tactics used in the Hezbollah pager explosions and devise similar operations. The lesson of 9/11 is that terrorists are constantly observing and adapting, turning new technologies and tactics into tools of destruction.

Retaliation: Could Hezbollah or Other Groups Strike Back?

The psychological impact of Israel’s pager attack on Hezbollah is profound. For a group that prides itself on its secrecy and internal security, the fact that Israel could remotely trigger explosions in devices Hezbollah believed to be safe is both humiliating and terrifying. This kind of breach could lead to a surge in paranoia among Hezbollah’s leadership and operatives, but it could also push the group toward retaliation.

Hezbollah is not limited to operating in Lebanon or Israel. The group has a vast global network, including sleeper cells in various countries. Over the years, Hezbollah has been linked to international terrorist attacks, including the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires and a 2012 bus bombing in Bulgaria targeting Israeli tourists. The possibility of Hezbollah retaliating against Israel or its allies, such as the U.S., is very real.

David Kennedy, a former NSA intelligence analyst, noted that the pager explosions required a high level of coordination and sophistication. He also emphasized the role that human operatives within Hezbollah likely played in making the operation successful. This raises the possibility that Hezbollah could use its own network of operatives to plan and execute a similarly coordinated attack on a larger scale.

The Threat of Tactical Mimicry

The real danger, however, lies not just in Hezbollah’s potential retaliation but in the likelihood that other terrorist groups could adopt the same tactics Israel used. Just as the 9/11 attackers exploited aviation—a technology designed for mass transit and global connectivity—future terrorists could target low-tech communication devices like pagers, which are often overlooked as a security risk.

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The success of the pager attack may inspire other groups to use similar devices in future operations. Given that pagers, landlines, and other low-tech systems are often considered “safe” because they are harder to hack than modern smartphones, this attack demonstrates that no technology is truly invulnerable. Terrorists could embed explosives in these devices or exploit them in other ways to wreak havoc.

Iran’s Role and Global Terrorism

Iran’s involvement in this conflict cannot be overlooked. As Hezbollah’s main sponsor, Iran has a vested interest in how the group responds to this attack. Should Tehran decide that Hezbollah’s retaliation must be severe, it could encourage the group to target Israeli or Western interests on a global scale. Given Iran’s longstanding tensions with both Israel and the U.S., any escalation could draw multiple parties into a wider conflict.

Moreover, Hezbollah is not the only group watching. Other terrorist organizations, including Al-Qaeda and ISIS, could see Israel’s use of remote-detonated pagers as a potential blueprint for their own attacks. The global nature of terrorism means that any successful tactic is likely to be replicated and adapted by other groups.

The Ripple Effect: A World on Edge

The global terror landscape is always evolving. The pager explosions in Lebanon are a stark reminder that even low-tech devices can be turned into weapons of mass destruction. As Israel demonstrated with Hezbollah, modern warfare isn’t just about drones and cyber-attacks; it’s about exploiting the vulnerabilities in everyday technologies that are often overlooked.

For Hezbollah, this attack is a blow to their operational security, but for the world, it’s a signal that such tactics could be used against anyone, anywhere. Terrorists are adept at learning from one another, and the pager blasts are likely to be studied by militants around the world as a model for future operations.

The prospect of a 9/11-style attack is no longer confined to airplanes and skyscrapers. It could come through a seemingly innocuous device like a pager, hidden in plain sight, waiting for the push of a button to unleash chaos. The world must now brace for the possibility that what was once a tactic used against a militant group in Lebanon could one day be turned against civilians in cities far beyond the Middle East.

Copyright 2024 FN, NewsRoom.

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